My First Quick Take On 2008
I'm watching Hillary speak on the Senate floor with the sound down. I listened to 30 seconds of it and couldn't take anymore. She would be a disaster for the Democratic Party, which is why they could go for her.
On the other side there's Rudy and McCain. No one has been more disappointing than McCain - an actual war hero kissing President Bush's ass to keep his own chances alive. I believe this sickening display has ended his hopes of being President. The White House is using him like a 10-dollar crack whore, and I could weep.
I have been in a room with Guiliani and he has gravitas to spare. He is presidential, and most voters are more forgiving of the personal stuff than our fundamentalist religious leaders would have you think. These pious blowhards only wish they were running America. They're not. President Bush was the least moral man ever to be President but he played the Christians like the biggest suckers in history. The Bible warned them about people like George but he reeled them in anyway. The Religious Right could be the biggest losers of the last 6 years, not counting the GOP itself.
So what will happen? I'm going with the Elvis factor on this. John Kerry was an example of someone who had Zero Elvis Factor, while Bill Clinton had a ton of it. These politicians think they can win over the public by picking just the right position with the right nuanced explanation for why they arrived at it.
Listen close, you pundits out there: There is no stronger force in politics than the Elvis factor - that is how Clinton defeated the first Bush, an incumbent President. The Elvis factor is when the People decide they like someone. It is why Tom Hanks is often mentioned as a dream candidate.
The only one with the Elvis factor is Barack Obama. Edwards and Mitt have a little but not enough, and you can't have the Elvis factor unless you have a lot of it. You've got to be in the main room and Edwards and Mitt are in the lounge. Obama's name will wind up on the marquee outside - he is a star. That is why leaders from near and far are already trying to destroy him. The American People will ponder what 4 to 8 years of listening to Hillary talk would sound like, when even 30 seconds is excruciating. She used to be better than this but ambition has made her unbearable and the People will be turned off. She has been Senatorized.
Obama has an air of greatness about him. If the American People get enough exposure to him, they will vote for him. It's that simple. Guiliani has a chance because he is presidential, but star power wins in America. As much as I hate to say it, even George Jr. had quite a lot of it - Bill Clinton admitted that, and he should know.
This time around Obama is way out in front of the other candidates in Star Power. He's my early pick as the next President of the United States. He's got the Elvis factor, and for the rest of the candidates, it's going to be Heartbreak Hotel. The Portland Freelancer has spoken.